The admission came as little surprise. David Ortiz is almost surely done for a 2012 season that was shaping up to be one of his best.
The designated hitter was putting up a year that spit in the face of typical aging patterns. At 36, his production as a hitter ranked neck-and-neck with that of anyone else in the American League. He hit .318 with a .415 OBP, .611 slugging mark and 1.026 OPS along with 23 homers.
Though Ortiz has now missed nearly a third of a season since his right Achilles strain, his home run total is still tied for the Red Sox’ team lead. Among hitters with at least 300 plate appearances this year, Ortiz leads all American Leaguers in OBP and OPS. He leads the majors in slugging percentage.
For that reason, it comes as little surprise that his absence is palpable.
“He’s a difference-maker,” said Red Sox manager Bobby Valentine. “We are lacking the real threat of that home-run guy. Most teams have a couple of them. We’re lacking right now.”
(Valentine did allow that the Sox have guys “who will hit home runs before the year is over,” a claim that was backed, at least for a day, when Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury went deep in the Sox’ 4-3 loss to the Blue Jays.)
But, of course, the issue has not simply been the absence of Ortiz. The Sox have seen three of their foremost power hitters go by the wayside, as Will Middlebrooks (15 homers in 75 games -- a pace that projects to 32 over 162 contests) suffered his season-ending wrist fracture on August 10, while Adrian Gonzalez (15 homers in 123 games) is now in Los Angeles.
The fact that the Sox’ offense has been transformed by those absences and departures is hardly a revelation.
“[Adrian Gonzalez] is gone, Will is injured, and myself. It wouldn’t be a surprise if you see, [with] the power hitters not there, the team’s not going to hit for power,” said Ortiz. “It’s been crazy. Just being able to sit down and watch, I was sitting next to my boy Will yesterday and the guy looked [depressed], you know what I’m saying? It’s like, hey, don’t worry, we’re in the same boat.”
With those two in one boat, the rest of the team appears to be in another vessel that is taking on plenty of water. Consider:
Power offers one of the cleanest routes to a win. Through baseball, entering Sunday, teams that went deep three or more times in a game owned a 325-77 record (.808 winning percentage).
In 90 games with a healthy Ortiz and Will Middlebrooks and before the deal that sent Adrian Gonzalez to Los Angeles, the Sox had 13 games (14 percent) in which they went deep multiple times. In 51 games since Ortiz landed on the DL, they’ve done it just three times (6 percent). In 27 games since Middlebrooks landed on the DL, it’s happened once (4 percent). The Sox have not had a single instance of going deep three times in a game since Gonzalez joined the Dodgers.
The Sox simply haven’t had a path to easy victories with their depleted lineup. And so, the question looms: Is the power deficiency something that the team can address for 2013?
A few caveats. First, Jarrod Saltalamacchia has about as much raw power as anyone in the game. With 23 homers, he still has a shot at the Sox’ single-season record for homers by a catcher of 26. That said, his precise role and playing time with the team next year seems somewhat murky, given the presence of Ryan Lavarnway -- a catcher who has shown little power this year, in a considerable departure from previous seasons.
Cody Ross has 20 homers in 109 games -- which would project to 30 in 162 contests. If the Sox re-sign him, he’d continue to provide a power threat. Jacoby Ellsbury, of course, has 30-homer potential, and Dustin Pedroia has established 15-20 homers as his typical output.
And, of course, there is an enormous likelihood that the Sox re-sign Ortiz, with one major league source suggesting that there is “no chance” that the team lets its longtime middle-of-the-order institution leave as a free agent. If healthy, as underscored this year, he represents an elite power threat.
Still, with Gonzalez gone, the Sox don’t have the same sort of middle-of-the-order threats that defined them for years. The combinations of, for instance, Ortiz/Manny Ramirez, Ortiz/Kevin Youkilis, Youkilis/Jason Bay and Ortiz/Gonzalez were notable not just for their raw power but also for their disciplined approaches that resulted in high on-base percentages and wilted opposing pitchers.
And the reality is that there are very few players in all of baseball who combine elite power with above-average plate discipline, and almost none who are free agents. In 2006, there were 30 players who had 30 or more homers with an OBP of .350 or higher. That number has trended steadily down, to the point where just 12 players this year are on pace to reach both of those benchmarks. If that projection holds, it would be the fewest players with 30 homers and a .350 OBP or better (not counting the strike season of 1994) since there were just five such players in 1992.
Among the 26 players who are on pace for 30 or more homers this year, just two (Josh Hamilton, Adam LaRoche) will be free agents, and only one (Hamilton) is posting an OBP over .350.
Hamilton’s performance has made it likely that he will command precisely the sort of megacontract that the Sox seem inclined to eschew in the aftermath of the deal that sent Gonzalez, Carl Crawford and Josh Beckett to LA.
LaRoche and the Nationals have a $10 million mutual option, but the 32-year-old seems likely to command a higher dollar figure and multiple years given his production this year. There should be considerable interest in him as a free agent as well.
Beyond Lavarnway and Middlebrooks, meanwhile, the Sox are probably about another year away from graduating another homegrown power hitter to the majors. Both Bryce Brentz (23 and now in Triple-A) and Xander Bogaerts (19, having recently concluded his year with a month in Double-A) have considerable power potential, with Bogaerts also showing the pitch recognition and discipline to post high on-base numbers.
But with those two having a likely big league ETA as regulars of no sooner than late-2013, the Sox will be forced to seek creative offseason solutions to their power outage.
ALEX SPEIER
In the latest edition of the "It Is What It Is" podcast, Chris Price and CSNNE's Mike Giardi take a look at the Patriots offseason on both sides of the ball, try and get a handle on which new guys will make an impact first, and whether or not the Patriots have altered their style when it comes to drafting and developing wide receivers.
Mike Florio joined the program to discuss the Jets decision to release Tim Tebow, he said the situation is as disaster all around for the Jets and that the problems begins with owner Woody Johnson. Mike also said that he was disappointed with the Pats moving back in the first round.
One of the hardest working men in the biz, Mike Petraglia aka "Trags", sits down with Butch Stearns live in Foxborough to help break down all the latest Pats moves. He discusses his reaction to the trade in Round 1 and the guys those picks produced. Also, the boys talk about the decent trade the Pats made in acquiring LeGarrette Blount from Tampa Bay for Jeff Demps and a 7th rounder.
We check in with Danny Ainge for our first talk to him since the Celtics season ended last weekend. We talk about the future of the team, KG, Pierce, Doc Rivers and more, as Danny directly answers the rumors being floated by ESPN's Stephen A. Smith.
Jackie Mac joins the show to discuss the trade rumors swirling around Paul Pierce, KG, Doc Rivers and the Celtics. She also discusses the future of the Celtics head coach.
Stephen A. joined the program to discuss the trade rumors he has reported regarding a possible trade including Doc Rivers and the Clippers. Stephen A. also told the guys that he has heard that Danny and Doc may be tiring of working together.
We check in with Red Sox Manager John Farrell live from Chicago and get his take on a good week for the Sox, a tough series since then in Chicago, and other team related notes.
Buster Olney joins Mut and Merloni to talk about the struggling Ellsbury and what that is doing to his contract value when he becomes a free agent.
Terry Francona joins the Dennis and Callahan Show to discuss his first-place Indians team as well as his time in Boston. The former Boston manager also touches on his recent book co-authored by Dan Shaughnessy and Shaughnessy's recent dust-up with David Ortiz.
McGuire joins Mut and Merloni to discuss the Bruins game 3 win, the Rangers awful power play, and the Shawn Thornton Derek Dorsett altercation.
Shawn joined the program to discuss his big night at MSG. He told the guys that it is not Marchand's job to fight and that he needs to be on the ice and out of the penalty box.
Cleveland Indians hottest team in baseball, yet remain last in attendance May 19, 2013 By AJ Kaufman 6 Comments There’s a scene in Major League where Bob Uecker, portraying the radio voice of the Indians, bemoans, “In case you haven’t noticed, and judging by the attendance you haven’t, the Indians have managed to win a few here and there, and are threatening to climb out of the cellar.” Well, that was nearly 25 years ago and fictional, but today’s reality is that Cleveland has won 17 of its last 21, and currently tops the AL Central with a mark of 25-17. No one in the majors is better than the Indians in the past month (20-7). That’s great news. The bad news, however, is the Tribe somehow remain in the MLB cellar when it comes to attendance. How can this be? The fact that I wrote on this same topic almost to the day last year – when only Tampa Bay drew fewer fans than Cleveland - may be even more troubling. Though roughly 34,000 watched a walk-off win Friday night against Seattle, perfect weather and free caps weren’t enough to draw more than 36,000 Saturday and Sunday combined. What did the Indians do in those tilts? They nabbed another walk-off win on Saturday, then the Indians crushed the great Felix Hernandez Sunday behind Justin Masterson, arguably the AL’s best pitcher right now. Fun fact: The Indians have already faced eight Cy Young Award winners in 2013: Bartolo Colon, R.A. Dickey, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Jake Peavy, David Price, Justin Verlander and Hernandez. They have won seven out those eight matchups. Simply astounding. This offseason, the much-maligned Indians front office finally made a legitimate attempt to improve the team through free agency. I’m not talking an Ubaldo Jimenez-like trade, but rather smart acquisitions that brought veterans Mike Aviles, Michael Bourn, Jason Giambi, Scott Kazmir, Brett Myers, Mark Reynolds, Drew Stubbs and Nick Swisher to Cleveland. In addition to being a fantastic place to watch a game due to great egress and ingress, with extremely affordable tickets, the best promo lineup anywhere, Jacobs Field boasts overall, cooler, less muggy summer weather than most Midwestern locales. The team also lowered beer and hot dog prices to $4 and $3 respectively. What other professional stadium in any sport offers that? I have visited 28 of the 30 current Major League Baseball stadia, and few top The Jake when all angles are considered. I say that as a baseball fan, not an Indians fan. As for the putative “economic” angle, these are the same people who spend insane amounts of money to watch terrible football every fall and show up in decent numbers for putrid basketball in the winter. Irrespective of season length, those sports charge up to 10 times the price for a ticket, and the atmosphere isn’t half as fan-friendly as baseball. I understand fans’ lack of willingness to get on board to some degree. A decent recap of Cleveland’s decade of “rebuilding” can be read here and the team suffered a horrific collapse last August. However, in addition to all the benefits of attending games at Jacobs (now Progressive) Field, fans should also realize the team has potential and often exceeds preseason aspirations at any point without warning. Cleveland hosts the rival Detroit Tigers — heavy favorites to repeat as AL Central champs — Tuesday and Wednesday nights before hitting the road. The temperature should be pleasant at first pitch each evening so you’d expect The Jake to be full to watch the best hitter on the planet right now — but don’t count on it.
Terry Francona joins the Dennis and Callahan Show to discuss his first-place Indians team as well as his time in Boston. The former Boston manager also touches on his recent book co-authored by Dan Shaughnessy and Shaughnessy's recent dust-up with David Ortiz.
Shawn joined the program to discuss his big night at MSG. He told the guys that it is not Marchand's job to fight and that he needs to be on the ice and out of the penalty box.
Our afternoon host Mike Salk was offended at Gerry and Kirk's conversation on his favorite band Rush, the guys responded.
McGuire joins Mut and Merloni to discuss the Bruins game 3 win, the Rangers awful power play, and the Shawn Thornton Derek Dorsett altercation.
Buster Olney joins Mut and Merloni to talk about the struggling Ellsbury and what that is doing to his contract value when he becomes a free agent.
Mut and Merloni discuss the Derek Dorsett, Brad Marchand, and Shawn Thornton altercation and how great it was.
With the Bruins up 3-0 in the series, we talk to Jack Edwards and take your calls. We touch on all things B's-Rangers and also focus on the future of the Bruins three promising young defensemen.
We touch on four topics we haven't talked about today... topics today include: Brian Urlacher retires, NFL schedule expansion, Sergio Garcia and more...
We discuss Spain's Sergio Garcia and his ignorant, racist comments against Tiger Woods.
The Bruins look to take a 3-0 series lead, Jon Lester gets his first loss, Dwight Howard has options in free agency.
Today on the Daily Planet the Bruins have a 2-0 lead over the New york Rangers, the Red Sox are back on the winning sde of things, and the noteable birthdays of the day.
The Bruins have almost finished raking the Leafs, the Red Sox struggle from the mound, Miami Heat fans show their level of class.
The Jerks are joined by another, Jerk Minihane.
They're like a ray of morning sunshine on an otherwise gloomy day.
....uhhhh.....a bunch of bombs over there....
Linda explains how the shootout transpired in Watertown during the early morning hours. She saw the first suspect mortally wounded and police beginning the manhunt for the second suspect.
More from this showJeff Bauman, a victim of the Boston Marathon bombing, joined the show to give the guys an update of his condition and a first-hand account of that terrible day. Jeff told the guys how he wrote the description of the bomber as soon as he could. Mr. Bauman added that he is aided every day with the knowledge that he is alive and the terrorist that detonated the bomb is dead.
More from this showShawn joined the show to discuss the teams great performance in game two against the Rangers. Shawn said that he wouldn't mind playing for John Tortorella because he seems like a funny guy.
More from this showElliotte Friedman joined the show to discuss the Bruins domination of the series thus far. He said that while nothing is certain he cannot see a way in which the Rangers come back and win the series.
More from this showBy and large, the focus of development in the minor leagues is on players. Still, there is a developmental path for coaches and managers in the farm system, as is evident from the fact that the previous two managers of the Red Sox' Triple-A affiliate in Pawtucket -- Torey Lovullo (2010) and Arnie Beyeler (2011-12) are now both on the Red Sox' big league coaching staff. They share their insights about the differences between player and coaching expectations in Triple-A vs. the majors, while discussing professional development from the perspective of former minor league managers who aspire to similar positions in the big leagues.
More from this show