There’s a very good chance that the Red Sox remain relatively quiet at the trade deadline, that they pass on the high-end, impact big leaguers in a season where the team’s realistic chances of a playoff run are slim.
Still, even if the Sox don’t make such a move now, the team will explore the market for such players in an effort to gauge the market, both to figure out the cost of acquisition and to determine the worth of their own players for potential future deals.
While the Red Sox feature a number of prospects who possess considerable value in a potential deal, for obvious reasons, the team will want to preserve and build around the best of them. That being the case, it is worth wondering whether a surprising name might be the most untouchable of Red Sox prospects right now.
Henry Owens, a lanky, 6-foot-7 left-hander, has been one of the most fascinating performers of the year in the Red Sox minor league system. He’s 9-4 with a 5.30 ERA for Single-A Greenville, numbers that fail to represent what an interesting prospect he is.
Start with the fact that he is punching out 12.9 batters per nine innings (107 punchouts in 74 2/3 innings), the highest strikeout rate in all of minor league baseball.
Then consider that he has been among the youngest starting pitchers in the South Atlantic League all season, typically facing older and more experienced opposing hitters.
Then consider that he is in his first year of professional baseball after the Red Sox drafted him in the supplemental first round (No. 36 overall) of last year’s draft.
Then consider that he has a very impressive three-pitch arsenal, which right now features a 90-92 mph fastball that he can bump up to 94 mph, a devastating changeup that may be his best swing-and-miss weapon and a curveball that he can spin well, albeit with still-inconsistent location.
Then consider that he has a precocious understanding for the craft of pitching, an understanding of what it means to set up pitches and counts and to change the eye levels of hitters with an elevated 94 mph fastball before coming back with a 90 mph heater at the knees.
The net result?
“Henry Owens may be the best prospect in our entire system right now,” one Sox official recently mused.
That’s no small feat, given that he is in a system that features some high-end talent in the form of Xander Bogaerts, Matt Barnes and Jackie Bradley Jr. But even if one makes the case that any of those three has a brighter big league future than Owens -- and compelling cases can be made for all of them as the top prospect in the Sox system -- Owens might be the most untradeable.
That doesn’t simply reflect his future value or ceiling. Instead, it reflects the fact that he will be the most difficult player for whom the Red Sox may find what they might consider equivalent value.
There is relative industry consensus on Barnes, Bogaerts and Bradley, all of whom are considered top prospects. Barnes represents a legitimate mid- to front-of-the-rotation starting pitching prospect thanks to his mid-90s fastball and the makings of a solid curveball and changeup. Bogaerts represents a monster hitting prospect, regardless of whether he stays at shortstop or moves to third or the outfield. Bradley is a lock to be an everyday center fielder, a dazzling defender with the on-base skills to be at the top of the order.
All three have showcased their talents over longer samples, whether in college and now the pros in the cases of Barnes and Bradley or multiple levels of professional baseball in the case of Bogaerts. It’s not hard to have industry consensus about what their values might be in a trade.
Owens is a bit different. He’s the embodiment of projection, a pitcher whose high ERA will be dismissed by his supporters (particularly in the Sox organization) as the typical learning process of a young pitcher but whose high strikeout totals will be downplayed by critics (chiefly, scouts of other organizations) as the byproduct of the level where he’s pitching and the fact that his opponents have rarely seen anyone like Owens -- very tall and gangly and left-handed and with a legitimate breaking ball and changeup -- on the mound.
Critics will see promise in Owens but will want to see that promise take greater definition in more advanced professional levels. The Sox, meanwhile, have more of a history with him, and so they see a remarkable player, pitcher and person who represents a future front-of-the-rotation pitcher. (A side note: A case can be made that no one in the system has more passion for baseball than Owens, whose incredible enthusiasm and rooting interest -- as well as attentiveness -- in his Greenville Drive team while sitting in the stands and charting games has become subject to organizational folklore.)
That, in turn, is likely to create asymmetrical value for the pitcher. The Sox’ view of him simply may not align with that of other teams, something that would make it almost impossible to consider a deal involving hm.
There is no such thing as an untouchable player in the Red Sox system, but there are players whom the organization values incredibly highly. Owens may be at the top of the list, as team officials suggest that it would take a remarkable talent to part with him.
A rental player, no matter how good, wouldn’t be enough of a return to consider dealing the young left-hander. For that matter, even players who are under team control for both this year and next -- think Matt Garza -- would not likely sway the Sox to deal him. In all likelihood, the Sox would need to get an established star-caliber big leaguer who would remain under team control for years in order to even contemplate the idea of trading the pitcher (who turned 20 a few days ago).
There are instances where players represent trading chips. If a player is blocked or, in some ways, redundant, his primary value to an organization is in his ability to help the team address an actual need. The team’s glut of outfielders comes to mind.
Owens does not. There’s no one like him in the Red Sox system, and there are few like him in all of professional baseball. What that means for his future is a bit unclear -- good luck looking at a pitcher who was drafted out of high school and is now in his first year of pro ball and saying with any certainty what his career path will be -- but all indications are that the Sox will keep him around to find out.
OTHER PROSPECTS WHO ARE UNLIKELY TO GO ANYWHERE
SO WHERE DOES THAT LEAVE THE SOX?
Given that group of prospects, which would give the Sox tremendous pause, there is a surprising wealth of prospects that could make attractive targets in a potential deal. In particular, the Sox possess outfield depth from the majors all the way down to the Dominican to create a number of interesting players who could be dealt.
Among the impressive (and attractive) group of outfielders in the system:
OTHER AREAS OF DEPTH
ALEX SPEIER
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