It didn't take long for the halo from David Ortiz's 400th career homer to disappear.
In an article that ran on Thursday, the slugger voiced his displeasure to USA Today about the fact that the Red Sox took him to the brink of an arbitration hearing before he settled with the club on a one-year, $14.575 million contract for 2012. The slugger said it was "humiliating" to go to such lengths to agree upon a one-year deal before finally settling at the mid-point of the team's one-year offer ($12.65 million, a slight pay increase from his 2011 base salary of $12.5 million) and his own proposal of a $16.5 million salary. Ortiz said that he was surprised that the team wouldn't offer him a two-year, $25 million deal, noting that the Sox very likely will end up paying more for him in 2012-13 by going the year-to-year route.
The fact that Ortiz remains wounded by the conduct of last winter's negotiations suggests that there is the potential for an even more explosive divide between the team and player entering next year.
Before getting into the nuts and bolts of the situation, it is worth saying this. The Red Sox want Ortiz to remain in Boston.
"We love and respect David Ortiz. He is part of the heart and soul of this team and this franchise, and we want him to play his entire remaining career with the Boston Red Sox. He has carried this 2012 team with his performance and leadership," said CEO/President Larry Lucchino. "His latest 4th of July accomplishment of 400 home runs is but another reminder of his greatness and Hall of Fame worthiness.
"Beyond that strongly-held sentiment," Lucchino added, "it would be inappropriate for us to comment on or negotiate terms of his next deal at this time of the season through the media."
So, the Sox want Ortiz. But as much as the slugger chafed at the way last offseason played out, there is a chance for this winter to become even more challenging, given that the mechanism that allowed the two sides to find middle ground last offseason is no longer on the table for free agents under the terms of the Collective Bargaining Agreement.
In the past (including last winter), teams had to offer free agents salary arbitration in order to guarantee that, if they left in free agency, they would receive a pair of draft picks as compensation for the departing player. That created the likelihood of raises such as Ortiz's, with the designated hitter getting a pay raise of more than $2 million this past winter.
But going forward, teams no longer need to offer arbitration to free agents to secure draft picks. Instead, there is, in essence, a qualifying offer that teams must make, in which they offer a free agent a one-year deal commensurate with the average of the top 125 salaries in baseball. This coming offseason, that average is expected to be about $12.5 million -- or roughly what Ortiz made in 2011, before his pay bump.
There is a tremendous likelihood that the Sox will make precisely such a qualifying offer to Ortiz this coming winter. Clearly, the team has some discomfort with going the multi-year route with Ortiz, given that his exceptional performance at age 36 represents a dramatic outlier. At some point, age is supposed to catch up to even the best hitters; for that reason, despite his tremendous track record in recent years, there appears to be some discomfort with committing to a player in his late-30s for multiple years.
Meanwhile, the new CBA increases a team's incentives to add extra draft picks from departing free agents. It used to be that the impact of the two extra picks a team could get through a departing free agent was felt primarily by the picks themselves. When Victor Martinez signed with the Tigers, the Sox turned the significance was felt in the provision to the Sox of picks No. 19 in the 2011 draft (a selection that ended up becoming Matt Barnes) and No. 36 (which ended up becoming left-hander Henry Owens).
Now, however, the impact of a departing free agent is felt far more broadly. With Major League Baseball setting draft pool bonuses for picks from the first 10 rounds of the draft, the extra slot money made available as a result of the compensation picks can allow teams to acquire more than just the two extra players. This year, for instance, the Red Sox received two compensation picks for the departure of Jonathan Papelbon -- the No. 31 overall pick (which the team used for Brian Johnson, signed to a slot bonus of $1.575 million) and the No. 37 overall pick, which the team used to take right-hander Pat Light, who signed for a $1 million bonus that was roughly $400,000 below the slot recommendation. The team used that $400,000 difference to help it sign fourth-round pick Ty Buttrey to a $1.3 million bonus that was almost $1 million beyond the slot recommendation.
In other words, the Sox were able to add not just two but instead roughly three players whom it would have been unlikely to get in the draft by letting one free agent (Papelbon) go. Had the team not put all of its extra money towards Buttrey, the $400,000 "savings" on Light easily could have helped the club secure two or three players who fell for signability reasons. In essence, in a world in which MLB has created massive penalties for exceeding slot, a departing free agent who is good enough to secure draft picks can change the entire shape of a team's draft as never before.
All of that is a roundabout way of saying that the Sox have ample incentive to make Ortiz a one-year qualifying offer at a salary that will represent a pay cut from what he's getting this year -- despite the fact that he's having a better season.
Here's a look at what Ortiz did in the first half of last year as compared to what he's done thus far this year:
2011: 87 games (79 starts), 348 plate appearances, .304/.391/.574/.965, 19 HR, 55 RBI
2012: 81 games (79 starts), 355 plate appearances, .302/.391/.607/.997, 22 HR, 55 RBI
He's been better in the first half this year than last. Indeed, as measured by OPS, he's having the best first half of his extraordinary career. If he sustains that, and if he outperforms the .309/.398/.554/.953 line with 29 homers and 96 RBI that he had a year ago, only to be told that he will be in line for a pay cut under the terms of the new CBA . . .
Perhaps it won't reach that point. Perhaps the Sox will decide that they want to ensure good will of their most important player of the past decade, a run that has already featured six playoff appearances and the team's first World Series titles since World War I. Certainly, the team hopes to continue what has been a remarkable run in Boston. Perhaps the team will make the one-year qualifying offer only as a means for ensuring compensation should Ortiz leave, but will still end up giving him a multi-year deal or another one-year deal that reflects his performance in 2012 as compared to 2011 (meaning if it is better, the team is still free to offer him a one-year deal beyond the qualifying offer).
Certainly, the Sox want the player who has now been the biggest force in its lineup for a decade to remain where he is.
"[I'm] glad he's on our side and hope he remains there," Red Sox GM Ben Cherington said in an email.
But there's a lot of incentive for the Sox to go the route of the one-year qualifying offer, and if that happens, then what has already become a somewhat uncomfortable dynamic between a club and its most recognizable superstar could become downright ugly, whether he decides to stay or, as he suggested in the USA Today story, to venture into the waters of the open-market with greater boldness than ever before.
ALEX SPEIER
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