The scenario is strikingly familiar: A new owner of a storied but star-crossed franchise seeks an established general manager to serve as the architect who will end an incredible championship drought.

That is the scenario unfolding in Chicago, where Tom Ricketts -- who purchased the Cubs at the end of 2009 -- is looking for a new GM after dismissing Jim Hendry in August. And his target, by all accounts, is Red Sox GM Theo Epstein, the man who has helped bring two championships to Boston, in the process ending an 86-year run of epic futility.

The situation represents a through-the-looking-glass moment for Red Sox owners John Henry, Tom Werner and Larry Lucchino. After the group’s first year in Boston, which saw the team dismiss former GM Dan Duquette and replace him with interim GM Mike Port, the Sox aimed high in their GM search.

At the time, A’s GM Billy Beane -- shortly before the publication of Moneyball -- was regarded by many as the top executive in the game after taking the small-market, small-revenue, small-payroll Athletics to the postseason for two straight years. The Sox spent two months conducting their formal GM search, but the process always had one target in Beane.

The A’s denied permission to the Sox, but Boston remained relentless, and Beane remained curious about exploring the idea of moving to a team with an enormous fan base and revenues. Finally, Oakland granted permission, Beane and the Sox reached an agreement on a five-year, $12.5 million deal for him to come to Boston, all parties popped champagne … and then Beane changed his mind, decided to stay with the A’s to remain close to his family on the West Coast, the Sox hired Epstein and Moneyball is now out in a theater near you.

Now, that moment nine years ago is echoing on Yawkey Way, where the Sox are facing another team’s efforts to acquire their GM in a fashion reminiscent of their attempt to pry Beane from Oakland. Given the similarities, here are some relevant lessons from l’Affaire Beane of 2002:

THE RED SOX WILL FIND IT DIFFICULT TO DENY PERMISSION

If Epstein wants to talk to the Cubs, it would be the height of hypocrisy for the Sox to deny him the opportunity to do so. After all, CEO Larry Lucchino essentially mounted a weeks-long sit-in – after the A’s initially had denied the Sox permission to talk to the GM – until former A’s owner Steve Schott finally relented and gave the Sox the chance to talk to Beane, at a time when he remained under contract in Oakland for six more seasons. 

At a time when Epstein remains under contract with the Sox for just one more year, it would be difficult for the club to make the case that its deal represents a reason to deny its GM permission to talk to another club. That said, the Sox can cite the Beane precedent in order to demand compensation for Epstein’s services.

BUT WHAT KIND OF COMPENSATION?

In both Moneyball (the Michael Lewis bestseller about the A’s under Beane) and Feeding the Monster (Seth Mnookin’s tome about the Red Sox’ construction of a champion), the Sox and A’s -- with Beane negotiating for the Sox, and Oakland Assistant GM Paul DePodesta in charge of negotiations for the A’s -- are said to have worked out a deal to send Beane to Boston for Kevin Youkilis.

In point of fact, noted one person familiar with the talks, while the A’s and Sox discussed different trade possibilities, with Youkilis being in the conversation, there never was a final deal in place by the time that Beane’s change of heart scuttled the deal.

Still, that connection of Beane to Youkilis (at the time, a promising yet undervalued third base prospect whose tremendous plate discipline had yielded high OBPs but no real power) serves as the closest thing to a precedent in determining the trade value of a GM.

If the Cubs end up making an offer to Epstein and he accepts, then the Sox could reference their own negotiations in seeking a meaningful prospect return for their general manager. However, that precedent would also likely work against Boston asking for a more outlandish haul such as budding star Starlin Castro or starter Matt Garza or even salary relief in the form of making the Cubs take on John Lackey.

THERE IS MORE THAN ONE WAY TO SKIN A CAT; THERE IS MORE THAN ONE GM TO WIN A CHAMPIONSHIP

At the start of the Red Sox’ GM search in 2002, Epstein was not in consideration for the job in Boston. He was viewed as a GM-in-waiting and someone who, in time and with further grooming for the position, would eventually be a tremendous head of a baseball operations department. Beane was the target.

Yet when the dust settled, it was Epstein who emerged as the Red Sox GM. And then, in one remarkable offseason -- at a time when the baseball landscape created huge opportunities to exploit market inefficiencies -- Epstein positioned the Sox to begin their championship run, acquiring players such as Bill Mueller, Kevin Millar, Todd Walker and a certain David Ortiz to create a beast of a lineup. 

Would Beane -- who has been back to the playoffs just twice since that offseason -- have been successful in Boston? Probably. Despite Oakland’s struggles, he is still regarded as a creative, talented executive.

But there’s no way to say whether he would have been able to match Epstein’s track record of success, which has included a pair of championships. Maybe the Sox under Beane would have won more; perhaps they would have won less.

Ultimately, the speculation is irrelevant. The takeaway from that sequence of events is that no single GM represents a prerequisite for a championship team. While it is productive for a team to identify a top target for the position, no single person has a monopoly on the blueprint for building a successful baseball team.

In the current environment, that lesson would appear to hold for both the Cubs (should they fail to convince Epstein to move to Chicago) and the Red Sox (if Epstein leaves after nine years, thus positioning someone else to take charge of Boston’s baseball operations).

WAIT FOR THE DUST TO SETTLE

The final lesson offered by Beane’s Red Sox saga is that these sorts of negotiations have a significant element of unpredictability. Between the geographic pull of family and the loyalty built to an organization that has a GM’s unquestionable mark, the final decision to leave one team for another features a number of complexities that make it almost pointless to try to forecast what will happen until it actually happens.

In the end, assuming that the Sox grant him permission to explore the opportunity in Chicago and that the Cubs want to hire him, it will be Epstein’s decision and Epstein’s alone as to whether he will leave the Red Sox after nine years. And perhaps not even he knows the answer to the question of whether he would take this opportunity -- at a time when he could leave the Sox feeling that the franchise was in better shape than when he started, but at a moment when the Sox are coming off a catastrophic conclusion to a season that once again didn’t feature baseball in October -- to head elsewhere.