It is a race that is shaping up to have all the excitement of a semifinal heat of a track meet. The two American League East powers have pulled away from the competition in a manner that suggests that both – barring some injury or other unexpected lightning bolt – are all but certain to advance, with the meaningful competition yet to come.
The Red Sox and Yankees both feature extraordinary teams this year. The two teams arrived at Fenway Park on Friday with identical 68-42 records, a pace that would yield 100-win seasons for each.
Even though the Red Sox had won seven straight games between the two clubs, as well as eight of nine on the year, it has been clear for some time that the two teams are unlikely to separate from each other. Since May 13, the two teams have not been separated by more than three games at any time.
On Friday, the Yankees claimed a somewhat unlikely 3-2 win (recap) to wrest control of first place from the Sox for the first time since July 5 on a night when everything seemed aligned for a Boston victory.
The Sox knocked out Bartolo Colon after 4 2/3 innings; entering Friday, Boston had won each of its last 23 games over a three-month span in which the opposing starter had failed to last five innings. Jon Lester was on the hill, owner of an 8-1 career record against New York and winner of each of his last five starts against the Yankees – the longest such run by a Boston left-hander since at least 1919.
And Lester had the goods early, shutting out the Yankees through five innings as the Sox took a 2-0 lead. Entering Friday, the Sox had a 52-7 record in such situations.
But Lester’s command faltered in the sixth, following a lengthy bottom half of the fifth, and the Yankees rallied for three runs on the strength of two walks (most notably a free pass to No. 9 hitter Eduardo Nunez to start the inning), three base hits that found holes and a run-scoring double play ball.
The Yankees bullpen was up to the task of shutting down the Sox completely over the final 4 1/3 innings for the victory, in the process restoring New York to the top of the AL East standings. The one-run victory merely served to underscore how closely the two teams are matched.
“Normally these two teams are the best team in the division. Right now, they match up pretty even right now,” said Sox outfielder Carl Crawford. “Both teams are good. The race is staying close. Everybody, I know they want to finish first and we definitely want to finish first, so it will definitely be close. Photo finish.”
Yet more significant than the order of these two teams at the end of that year will be the fact that every other American League team seems likely to be little more than a speck on the horizon in that photo. The Red Sox and Yankees are both so good that it has rendered the rest of the regular season little more than a spectator sport to see who the two other playoff teams will be.
The Sox, having now slipped into second in the AL East, are still seven games ahead of the Angels in the wild card race. The Rays are nine games back. The 57-55 record of the Blue Jays is good enough to have them within 11 ½ games of the wild card.
To put that sort of distance in context, a year ago today, the Red Sox were five games behind the Yankees in the AL East and 4 ½ behind the Rays for the wild card when owner John Henry proclaimed that the Sox would need a “miracle” in order to make the playoffs. The statement wasn’t terribly popular in the Sox clubhouse, but it reflected a reality – barring a collapse by one of the frontrunners, history suggested that it was remarkably unlikely that the Sox could erase that sort of distance over the final two months.
And so, for either the Sox or Yankees to release their stranglehold on playoff spots this year would be even more improbable. The two teams have separated themselves so much from the rest of the American League in the standings that the lone outstanding question is the marginally interesting question of which one will enter the playoffs as the division winner and which one will be the wild card entrant.
Undoubtedly, the two teams should and do care about who wins the division and thus positions itself for home field in the American League playoffs. In the last five years, the team with home field advantage in a playoff series has won 20 of 35 series, a .571 series winning percentage.
But really, it would appear that both teams are already managing their schedules with an eye towards October. They are in a position where they are following conservative courses in the treatment of key player injuries in recognition of the fact that there is no meaningful pennant race to speak of, and that almost everything from this point forward serves merely as a prelude to the postseason.
After all, since 2000, four teams (the 2002 Angels, 2003 Marlins, 2004 Red Sox and 2006 Cardinals) have won the World Series without benefit of home field advantage in any round. In that same span, just three teams (2005 White Sox, 2007 Red Sox, 2009 Yankees) have won the World Series after leading their league in wins.
Games between the Red Sox and Yankees once inspired nearly breathless reactions, regardless of the stage of the year, in part because there was the possibility that the two teams could damage each others’ playoff hopes. This year, even in a taut, well-played, one-run game, there was little of that. The consequence of defeat was minimal.
“We’ve got a lot of games left. This is just another series,” Red Sox DH David Ortiz mused after the game. “We’ve got to go back to New York in September right? If we keep on playing they way we’re playing and they keep playing the way they’re playing, maybe that series in New York will make it different. But right now, you’ve just got to keep on trying to win as many games as you can.”
That is a formula that has worked for both teams to devastating effect thus far this year, to the point where they virtually can commence their postseason plans in August. And so, unless (until?) the two teams meet in the playoffs, their games against each other going forward will lack the juice of past years.
ALEX SPEIER
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