A case can be made that Anthony Ranaudo was the most-hyped Red Sox draft pick of all time.
At a time when interest in the amateur selection process has grown to unprecedented levels, the big right-hander entered 2010 ranked among the top handful of prospects in the game. Though he struggled as a junior while dealing with health and mechanical setbacks, he used a dominant run in the Cape League to re-establish his credentials.
Each of his outings last summer became newsworthy as the Sox prepared to negotiate with Ranaudo and his representative, Scott Boras. Whether he would sign or remain at LSU became a source of summer-long intrigue. In the end, the Sox inked the No. 39 pick in last year’s draft for $2.55 million, the seventh largest bonus in the draft.
Ranaudo did not pitch last year after signing, with the Sox instead electing to unveil the 6-foot-7 right-hander in Greenville to start the 2011 campaign. Thus far, the early returns have been spectacular.
He took his first pro loss on Monday, but through little fault of his own on a night when he allowed no earned runs (three unearned, the result of two errors and two passed balls in one inning) on two hits and one walk while striking out eight in 4 2/3 innings. Through his first four starts for the Drive, he is 1-1 with a sparkling 0.46 ERA, 23 strikeouts, eight walks and just 10 hits allowed in 19 2/3 innings.
Greenville Drive Media Relations director Eric Jarinko took stock of some of the best starts seen by top pitching prospects with the Single-A South Atlantic League affiliate. Through four starts, here were the breakdowns:
Clay Buchholz (2006): 2-0, 0.96 ERA, 18 2/3 IP, 22 SO, 4 BB
Casey Kelly (2009): 3-0, 0.90 ERA, 20 IP, 19 SO, 3 BBâ¨
Anthony Ranaudo (2011): 1-1, 0.46 ERA, 19 2/3 IP, 23 SO, 8 BB
So what does that mean for Ranaudo’s future, or more specifically, how soon he might move up the ladder?
After all, that Ranaudo was assigned to Low-A Greenville at all came as something of a surprise. Based on his pedigree as a pitcher who claimed a victory in the College World Series championship game and who tore ruthlessly through top amateur competition on the Cape, Hi-A seemed a likely destination for him.
But the Sox wanted Ranaudo to become comfortable with the five-day routine at a lower level, and so they assigned him to Greenville. To date, Ranaudo has seemed like a man among boys at the level.
Given his tremendous start, it seems fair to wonder how long Ranaudo might stay at the lowest rung of the Red Sox’ ladder of full-season affiliates. Certainly, the Sox more often err on the side of pushing players aggressively than in keeping them at a level where the competition cannot challenge their skills.
“We’ve pushed players aggressively in the past,” said farm director Mike Hazen last week. “Anyone, if they show that they can dominate a level for a period of time, and they accomplish what we feel like they needed to accomplish, we’ll move them.”
Hazen declined to put a timetable on when that might be the case for Ranaudo. However, he did note that the issue of a pitcher accomplishing all goals at a level was not limited simply to the in-game results at this stage of the pitcher’s career, suggesting that the Sox have different standards for promoting first-year pitchers as compared to position players.
“If he continues to show us that he’s not being challenged at the level, we’re going to move him,” said Hazen. “The only difference with guys who are starting pitchers is there’s so much to the five-day routine that, that part is going to artificially determine some things. If he hasn’t locked that in, we’re not going to move him because that’s a huge part of what he’s doing right now.
“He’s learning the five-day routine, learning what keeps him healthy and successful. He’s learning what he needs to do on a side day to be healthy on day five,” added Hazen. “All those things, he’s not going to learn those things overnight. It’s going to take start after start after start to figure that out.
“Other than dominating to the point where it would be kind of stupid, we still need to make sure that he’s locked in on that five-day routine. There’s a little bit of a difference with a pitcher vs. a position player.”
Ranaudo’s two dominant predecessors in Greenville suggest divergent possibilities.
Despite having started his pro career right after being drafted in 2005 as a pitcher for the Lowell Spinners, Buchholz spent almost all of the 2006 season in Greenville, acclimating to life as a pitcher after having been both a pitcher and position player in college. He made 21 starts in Greenville, going 9-4 with a 2.62 ERA while striking out 117 and walking 29 in 103 innings before making his final three starts of the year in Hi-A Wilmington.
Kelly, on the other hand, was promoted to Hi-A Salem after nine starts in which he went 6-1 with a 1.12 ERA to begin his pro pitching career. His performance and rapid promotion comes with something of a caveat, however, as Kelly was slated to pitch only for the first half of 2009 before spending the second half as a shortstop.
That, in turn, hastened the Sox’ decision to promote him. Had he not been in line for the half-season as a shortstop, the Sox might well have waited longer before his promotion.
Of course, neither Buchholz nor Kelly had the kind of pitching pedigree that Ranaudo did upon turning pro. The LSU product was the only one of the three to pitch for a major Division 1 program. Likewise, he was the only one of the three to come to the Sox following an amateur career that was dedicated solely to work on the mound.
And so, his results to date in Greenville are not entirely unexpected. He did, after all, make it through nearly 30 innings on the Cape last summer without allowing an earned run.
Thus far, he’s shown a promising three-pitch mix. The towering right-hander has been able to power his 93-94 mph fastball (which has touched 95 mph) down in the strike zone for swings and misses. He has also been getting numerous swings and misses on his curveball, more than the Sox had seen him produce as an amateur in 2010.
Ranaudo has also been working to develop a changeup as a viable third offering.
“We think it has a chance to be a major league average pitch,” said Hazen. “When you first step out there, it’s probably the hardest thing to try to get into the mix because by and large, especially when you see these college pitchers, they don’t throw the changeup against metal bats because they get deposited in a lot of places. Encouraging them to be comfortable throwing the changeup, and that throwing it off the barrel of the bat will get results, is important.
“He’s been mixing it in more and more with each successive start. Hopefully, as his pitch count climbs, he’ll get more comfort in continuing to use it.”
Perhaps the Sox could use his time in Greenville to encourage Ranaudo to have faith in that pitch. Naturally, it would be easier for Ranaudo to experiment with a new pitch at a level that he can dominate completely than at one where he might find the playing field more even.
But, at a certain point, if the enormous right-hander continues to dominate, then as soon as it becomes clear that he has acclimated to life on a five-day schedule as a professional, he will move. And when he does, then the interest in the pitcher who is viewed by some as the organization’s top pitching prospect will only amplify.
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