There is no denying that Clay Buchholz had an incredible season in 2010. But there is also no denying that his formula for success was . . . unusual.

There was a time when a 17-7 season with an incredible 2.33 ERA by a pitcher in his age 25 season would be heralded as a breakout, and anticipated as the start of a long run of mound dominance. But the growing sophistication about statistical analysis has created skepticism about whether Buchholz -- who tossed three shutout innings against the Yankees in his spring training start on Friday, striking out two, walking two and allowing one hit -- can once again perform at such a remarkable level.

In short, Buchholz -- whose minor league dominance was manifest in high strikeout rates -- thrived as a contact pitcher last year. His strikeout rate (6.2 per nine innings) was the lowest of his career, and his average of 1.8 strikeouts per walk was relatively unimpressive. That said, late in the 2010 season, Buchholz noted that his reduced strikeouts were by design.

"[Strikeouts] are fun. They’re awesome. Any time you get two strikes on someone, you want to strike them out. You can only strike them out when you have two strikes. You can’t strike them out before then. That’s the way I started thinking about it. Throw to contact early and if you get to two strikes, try to finish them," Buchholz said last Sept. "I used to strike a whole lot of people out and it would cause me to come out of the game earlier.

"This year, I’ve pitched deeper into games on a more consistent fashion than I ever have, just because of the fact that if I’m in the sixth inning and have 65 pitches and two strikeouts, rather than having eight strikeouts and 95 pitches, I think that’s a big factor, knowing that hitters here are going to make contact a lot more often than they did in the minor leagues.

"So when you get in a jam, throw a pitch that you’re convicted in throwing and let them hit it at somebody. That’s how my thought process is."

That all sounds like a sound, mature approach on the mound. Yet it is more challenging to sustain and repeat the kind of success Buchholz had last year without putting up the kinds of strikeout rates that inspire 'K' cards in the bleachers. Typically, pitchers who give up a good number of walks (Buchholz allowed 3.5 per nine innings last year), don't strike out a ton of batters and pitch to contact get burned. They do not usually compete for the American League ERA title.

So how did Buchholz do it, and what does that mean for the pitcher's future?

A strong case can be made that luck influenced his ERA quite a bit. As Gary Marbry noted in this Nuggetpalooza entry, Buchholz enjoyed freakish success on "clutch ground balls," with opponents going just 1-for-28 on two-out grounders with runners in scoring position. This is what the young pitcher was likely referring to when he discussed, on several occasions, how his success of 2010 owed in no small part to luck and the defense behind him.

Moreover, Buchholz had an unusually low batting average on balls in play. When opponents put the ball in play against him, they hit just .263 -- not a shockingly low number (between 1990 and 2010, there were 160 instances of starters with at least 162 innings and a lower BABIP), but certainly well below the major league average of .297 as well as the American League average of .294.

It is possible but unusual to repeat such low marks. Since 1990, eight pitchers (including Sox starter Tim Wakefield) have produced at least four seasons with a BABIP of .270 or lower while throwing at least 162 innings. A total of 66 pitchers have had at least two such years. (For the full list, click here.)

The strikeout-to-walk rate is a bit trickier. From 1990-2010, there are just 25 instances of pitchers recording a sub-3.00 ERA in a season in which their strikeout totals failed to double their walks totals. And only one pitcher was able to have multiple seasons with both a sub-3.00 ERA and worse than a 2-to-1 strikeout-to-walk rate (Tom Glavine accomplished the feat three times).

So, what does that mean for Buchholz' future? Most projection systems forecast the pitcher to have an ERA in the mid- to high-3's next year. That would still define the 26-year-old as a well-above-average pitcher, though certainly not one at the same dominant level that he achieved in 2010.

Yet to dismiss the possibility that Buchholz can once again rank among the best pitchers in the league would be somewhat premature. Doing so obscures the fact that Buchholz' arsenal -- the outstanding two-seam fastball that became his most important pitch last year by eliciting one of the highest groundball rates in the game, the cut fastball that he began to use last year to saw off hitters, the Bugs Bunny changeup and the curveball that is at times unhittable when he can control its break and bury it -- is tailor-made for the most important two outcomes a pitcher can get.

Buchholz is a pitcher who has both the capacity to generate tons of groundballs and swings and misses. Though he was more of a contact-inducing, groundball pitcher last year, that does not mean that he's incapable of the strikeout rates to be a front-of-the-rotation starter.

Sox GM Theo Epstein is thus unconcerned about suggestions that Buchholz' relatively modest strikeout rate does not lend itself to repeating the outstanding results of a year ago.

"I think that's easy to say from a pure statistical standpoint, especially from people who haven't watched him pitch. But there is no doubt that the lower strikeout rate last year was the result of going right after hitters, playing to contact because of the new elements to his fastball," said Epstein. "He had increased velocity, he had increased movement, he had the ability to locate it and he could get mis-hits with his fastball. Clay could go for strikeouts as well as anyone in the game. He's got a strikeout changeup. He's got a strikeout breaking ball. Now, with the way that his two-seamer is playing and his cutter, it's a lot more efficient for him -- he's learning how to do this -- to get mis-hits. Ultimately, it's not like he can't get strikeouts. But I think his efficiency was more important than strikeouts."

As pitchers harness their stuff, they can allow the situation to dictate how they approach hitters. And while Buchholz' success last year was built on the ability to get mis-hits, the Sox note that he is capable of getting strikeouts when he needs them.

"His strikeout rate is fine," said Epstein. "Clay's stuff is the definition of swing-and-miss stuff when he gets to that part of the count and that game situation. He's got multiple swing and miss pitches. He'll be a strikeout guy when he needs to be."

It remains an open question whether Buchholz can ever again have an ERA as low as the sparkling number he featured last year. Only seven pitchers in the last 20 years (Greg Maddux, Pedro Martinez, Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Kevin Brown, Felix Hernandez and Dennis Martinez) have recorded a 2.50 ERA or better in multiple seasons.

But while it will be challenging for Buchholz to join that group, that should be of little consolation to American League hitters who need to contend with the fact that the right-hander's stuff ranks among the most dominant in the game, and that his growing familiarity with it offers the possibility that he can continue to improve.