It had been hanging over the Rays all season.
This was the proverbial last-hurrah, the final opportunity for the core that won the American League pennant in 2008 to claim a championship.
Tampa Bay is a low-revenue club. Their success is built on young players who receive below-market salaries. And so, with a number of their players – most notably, left fielder Carl Crawford, first baseman Carlos Pena, closer Rafael Soriano and setup man extraordinaire Joaquin Benoit – poised to hit free agency following the 2010 season, there was a sense looming all year that 2010 represented a fleeting opportunity for Tampa Bay to do damage in the postseason.
For that reason, the implications of the end of the Rays season extend beyond Tampa Bay. The entire landscape of the AL East could shift following the Rays’ elimination at the hands of the Rangers. The Red Sox’ ability to withstand their onslaught of injuries in 2010, for instance, might have been significantly different with a Rays club stripped to nuts and bolts.
So, with Tampa Bay likely facing an offseason of significant change, will the American League East shift back from a three-team to a two-team race?
Certainly, that could happen. That said, it would also be a mistake to dismiss the potential for the Rays to remain competitive going forward.
Back in April, Rays manager Joe Maddon took stock of not just his team, but his organization, in suggesting that he expected that this season need not represent a closing window for his club.
“This is who we are. We understand how to do this, how to remain competitive within this division,” said Maddon. We always talk about one eye on the present, one eye on the future. That’s just who we are. I think our farm system is set up pretty well.
“The biggest thing about dollars is that dollars buy experience, and that expedites the potential for winning. I understand that. But we have a bunch of young vets who we’re going to keep for a while and we have to augment properly from within, coupled with some acquisitions.”
Can they do that? Maybe, maybe not. But at the least, the possibility can’t be ruled out.
For starters, there are the starters. Tampa Bay had the best rotation in the AL East this year, with its starters forging a 3.99 ERA (compared to a 4.17 mark for the Sox and a 4.35 ERA for the Yankees). Rays starters also led the AL East in quality starts (95, compared to 89 for the Sox and 83 for the Yankees).
All five of the Rays starters – David Price, Matt Garza, James Shields, Wade Davis and Jeff Niemann – are 28 or younger, and all are under team control through at least 2013. Add to that Minor League Pitcher of the Year Jeremy Hellickson and a wave of other top-tier minor league talents and the Rays should remain within tinkering distance of the playoffs.
Beyond that, the Rays will find it nearly impossible to replace Crawford’s dynamic impact. And the possibility that the five-tool outfielder could end up with either the Yankees or Sox represents a potential double-whammy for the Rays.That said, they have at least a hope of diminishing the impact of his departure next year with top position prospect Desmond Jennings, a player whose skills resemble (though do not match) Crawford’s. Meanwhile, a number of Rays lineup holdovers are at an age suggesting they could be poised for career primes.
Evan Longoria is a 24-year-old superstar. Second baseman Sean Rodriguez is 25; center fielder B.J. Upton is 26, as is power-hitting right fielder Matt Joyce. Improvements by that group could help offset the loss of Crawford. Meanwhile, while Pena has long expressed his love of Tampa Bay and his hope that the Rays will keep him, he’s coming off a season (.196 average, .325 OBP, .732 OPS) in which his production should be replaceable at minimal cost.
The bullpen might be another matter, as an unusual confluence of circumstances – Soriano’s acceptance of a Braves arbitration offer, Benoit’s recovery from shoulder surgery – made them available at minimal risk.
That said, even as the Rays face an offseason of change, it is a prospect from which they do not shy. While it would be natural to write off Tampa Bay for the coming year, and to assume that the Yankees and Sox will once again lord over the division, such an outcome is not a forgone conclusion.
The Rays had the best regular season record in the American League for the second time in three years. Several key players on this year’s team – Soriano, Benoit, Joyce, John Jaso, Rodriguez, Brignac and Ben Zobrist, among others – were not members of the ’08 club.
Change and adaptation are inevitabilities for the Rays. That, and the fact that they operate with a limited payroll that owner Stuart Sternberg has said will shrink next year, makes their task of competing with the Sox and Yankees more daunting.
Nonetheless, the Rays refuse to believe that their loss on Tuesday night represented the end of their title aspirations.
“I have a lot of faith in our system and how we do things. We've gotten to this point because we've been creative, because we have excellent ownership and a great front office staff,” Maddon told reporters after his team was eliminated. “We'll put this down for a couple weeks, then we'll pick it back up and we'll start seeing where all the pieces are going to fall, then we'll start putting it together for next year. I really believe, like I said, in our system. I believe we're going to contend again next year. I know a lot of people, once again will think I'm nuts, but that's okay. I really believe that.”
ALEX SPEIER
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