ANAHEIM, Calif. -- A year ago, the All-Star Futures Game represented the culmination of Casey Kelly’s remarkable first pro season as a pitcher.
In a fitting finale to a year in which he went 7-5 with a 2.08 ERA while holding opponents to a sub-.200 average, the young right-hander was invited to the showcase events for the top prospects in the minors. He delivered an efficient 1-2-3 inning in St. Louis, his final appearance on the mound before switching to shortstop for the remainder of the year.
Though he had not yet made the decision to commit full-time to pitching, the 2008 first-round pick had solidified his status as one of the top pitching prospects in the game. The runaway train of hype had left the station, accompanied by visions of Kelly potentially knocking on the Red Sox’ big league door by late in the 2010 season should he commit to the mound.
One year later, Kelly was again on the hill on Futures Game Sunday. But this time it was not as an invitee to the game, but instead as the starter for the Double-A Portland Sea Dogs, making his 17th start of the year. The 21-year-old tossed 5 2/3 innings, allowing one run on five hits and a walk while striking out two.
He earned the win for the Sea Dogs, just his second victory of the year. Even with that outing, Kelly’s record stands at 2-4 on the year, and his ERA stands at 5.28.
And so, at first glance, one would look at those numbers — a far cry from the ones Kelly had put up at this point in 2009 — and suggest that Kelly’s season had fallen short of expectations. But the Red Sox could not disagree more with such a perspective.
“Great developmental year for him. He’s learned a lot, and he takes the mound with big league stuff every time out,” Sox general manager Theo Epstein said while taking in the Futures Game. “He’s a guy you have to look beyond the numbers for. If you watch him pitch and look past the numbers, you see a 20-year-old who is going to be a very, very good big league pitcher.
“Some days he’s got a plus curveball. Some days he’s got a plus changeup. Sometimes his fastball command isn’t as locked in as he needs it to be. He’s learning how to pitch without it, without his best stuff on given days.”
This has been a year for Kelly to develop against much older competition. And in terms of stuff, he has done just that.
A year ago, he was mostly working with a 90-92 mph fastball. Thanks to an offseason strength program that was focused solely on building him to pitch (and without the demands of playing a position), the young right-hander’s fastball velocity has ticked up to the point where he is now hitting 94 mph.
His command, as Epstein suggested, has been less precise than it was a year ago, when it was perhaps his most impressive characteristic. But the Sox are confident that he will once again be able to locate pitches at will.
In that light, it is worth noting that Kelly’s struggles have come at a time when he is the youngest starter in the Eastern League. Even though he entered the season with just a half-season of pro pitching experience, he has been pushed to perform against extremely advanced competition.
Kelly is 20, in a league where the average pitcher is 24. Clay Buchholz was 22 when he was in Portland; Jon Lester was 21; Jonathan Papelbon 24; Daniel Bard 23. All of them dominated at the level, but they'd all had more experience as pitchers entering their Double-A seasons than Kelly.
He is part of a system that, from top to bottom, has most of its top prospects competing at levels that are advanced for their ages. That, the Sox believe, has hurt the numbers of players like Kelly, Anthony Rizzo (in Double-A at age 20, the third youngest position player in the Eastern League, and hitting .252/.303/.445/.748) and Lars Anderson (22, the 10th youngest position player in the Triple-A International League, hitting .235/.339/.375./.723 with Pawtucket).
But numbers, the Sox insist, are not the priority. Instead, the club wants to do what it considers best for the development of its prospects, and sometimes that means exposing them to the prospect of struggling.
“All of these guys we could have kept at a different level that still would have been age appropriate and they’d be putting up big numbers,” Epstein said. “Guys who we feel are going to be everyday big league players or starting pitchers for us in the big leagues, we want to challenge them at a level that we think is most beneficial for their development.
“We’re not trying to boost their trade value and have them put up big seasons so we can brag about our system. We’re trying to put them at the level that’s most appropriate for their development, even if it means that their numbers are not what they’re going to be eventually.”
And so, while the spotlight may not be quite as glaring in its focus on a player like Kelly one year after his Futures Game appearance, the Sox nonetheless insist that his prospect status hasn’t dimmed. That he is being challenged — and sometimes struggling while doing so — is a productive part of his maturation that could bode well for him over the long haul.
MINOR LEAGUE NOTES
-- The player who represented the Sox at the Futures Game, Stolmy Pimentel, retired both of the batters he faced in Anaheim, showing all three of his pitches (a 92-93 mph fastball, a curve and a swing-and-miss changeup) in his brief stint. For more on his outing and the Sox’ view of his progress, click here.
-- The Sox have yet to officially sign any players in the July 2 international amateur market, according to major league sources. The team does have agreements pending physicals and investigations with two players: one right-handed pitcher, and one outfielder, according to a major league source.
-- While catcher Mark Wagner is now back in Triple-A Pawtucket, fellow 40-man-roster member Dusty Brown is also making progress in his rehab. Brown began a rehab assignment with Single-A Lowell on Sunday, going 1-for-3, in his return from a badly sprained thumb incurred during a collision at home plate. While neither is yet ready to take on an everyday workload, depending on how long Victor Martinez and Jason Varitek are sidelined, they could enter the big league picture at some point in the coming weeks.
-- Ryan Kalish, after being sidelined for a couple of weeks by a hip injury, has been scorching the ball in Pawtucket. The 22-year-old outfielder is now hitting .333/.407/.457/.863 In Triple-A, including .455/.500/.576/1.076 in July. He has stolen nine bases without getting caught in Pawtucket.
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