Perhaps Saturday was a sign of what the new reality facing the Red Sox.
In their first game with Dustin Pedroia on the disabled list, the Sox offense had one quick burst out of the gate and then withered. The team threw four runs on the board in the first two innings, but could add no more over the final seven. Still, it was enough to earn a 4-2 victory over the Giants in San Francisco. (Recap.)
It was the sort of contest that the Sox have rarely found themselves winning this year. But it was precisely the sort of contest that they will have to start winning if they hope to contend while Pedroia recovers from a broken bone in his left foot, diagnosed as a non-displaced fracture of the navicular bone.
After their sputtering start to the year, the Sox reinserted themselves into the thick of postseason contention in unexpected fashion. A team that entered the year with offensive question marks, and that suffered several injuries that seemed likely to challenge further Boston’s ability to score, started beating opponents senseless.
The Sox have scored more runs than any team in baseball (414, 5.5 per game), and also leads the majors in slugging percentage and OPS. They are on pace to have their most prolific offense since 2005.
Or, at least, they were.
It is nearly impossible to imagine that the Sox will not suffer a significant setback in the absence of Pedroia. Among all major league second baseman with at least 100 plate appearances, Pedroia ranked in the top three in virtually every offensive category, including average (.292, 3rd), OBP (.370, 3rd), slugging (.502, 2nd), OPS (.871, 2nd), homers (12, 3rd) and steals (8, 2nd).
The second baseman shook off a woeful stretch of roughly three weeks to deliver elite offensive production. His presence in the lineup represented a huge competitive advantage to the Sox over other clubs. In all likelihood, no matter who the Sox turn to in his place, they will suffer an offensive hit.
As of now, the Sox do not have a timetable for the return of the 2008 AL MVP. After ripping a foul ball off of the instep of his left foot in Friday night’s game, he underwent an MRI and CT scan on Saturday morning that revealed a non-displaced fracture of the navicular bone in the middle of the foot.
Players such as Yao Ming, Bill Walton, Frank Thomas and Michael Jordan lost the better part of full seasons to navicular stress fractures. But the Sox do not believe that the prognosis was that dire, given the results of the tests that Pedroia has already undergone.
“[Red Sox doctors] didn’t see a displacement,” Sox manager Terry Francona told reporters. “He’s going to get looked at when we get home. But I think at least preliminarily, it was fairly good news.”
Still, even if the most dire possibilities are ruled out, it could be a while before Pedroia is seen back on the field. Flyers center Jeff Carter missed just over two months after a puck off his foot caused a non-displaced navicular fracture.
Several studies indicate that non-displaced navicular fractures respond well to six weeks of non-weight-bearing. That said, it is possible that the timetable for Pedroia’s return could be faster than that, depending on the severity of the fracture.
“I could feel fine in two weeks and then play. Or maybe I can’t walk until six weeks. They don’t know,” Pedroia told reporters. “In the past, I’ve healed pretty quick. Hopefully I do that this time.”
Still, with no guarantees about when Pedroia might return, the Sox will have to find ways to win in his absence if they hope to contend. On Saturday, Bill Hall served as the starting second baseman.
Hall has been very valuable to the Red Sox roster due to his versatility, and he has had a solid mix of patience (walking once every 7.6 plate appearances) and power (five homers in 124 at-bats). But his .229 average and .724 OPS suggest that it is unlikely that he will be able to replace the production of one of the best second basemen in the game. For that matter, aside from Robinson Cano, there might not be another second baseman who could be as valuable to a club as Pedroia.
Even assuming that the Sox cannot find a way to replace completely the offense of Pedroia, however, their ambitions to contend need not be derailed. The second baseman himself made that case.“We’ll be fine. We’ll find ways to win,” Pedroia told reporters. “We’ve had guys get hurt all year and we’ve still been able to win games. I don’t see why we still can’t do that. Everyone is going to have to step up and find a way to win ballgames.”
That could mean that the Sox are forced to rely on the buzzwords that dominated the offseason: run prevention.
While the Sox have been the best offensive team in baseball, their success this year was not supposed to be predicated on bludgeoning opponents. It was supposed to be a byproduct of having one of the best pitching staffs in the game.
The loss of Pedroia will also impair the team’s run prevention, in that he is also one of the best defenders in the game. Still, even with Josh Beckett sidelined until at least late-July by his back strain (and subsequent lat issues), the Sox have one of the most talented rotations in the game. They will have to lean more heavily on their starting five to endure Pedroia’s absence.
The rotation has shown a readiness to shoulder such a load in recent weeks. Since May 29, Sox starters are 14-5 with a 3.26 ERA over 26 games. Over that same period, the Sox are tied for the second-fewest runs allowed in the American League (103).
The Sox nearly experienced a huge setback on the run prevention front on Saturday, when Clay Buchholz (10-4, 2.45 ERA) left the game against the Giants with a hyperextended left knee while running the bases.
But the right-hander was examined, and initial results suggest that he might not even miss a start. The Sox, who have off days this coming week on both Monday and Thursday, have the ability to adjust their rotation to give Buchholz extra rest before his next outing, but the team is hoping that might not prove necessary.
“We all panicked right away. When he got in the dugout, he was kind of struggling,” Francona told reporters. “A little bit after that, he got back in the clubhouse, he’s got good range of motion, he’s got good strength.
“It kind of scared all of us. With days off and things off, if we need to adjust our rotation, we certainly can. But as of right now, we’ll just kind of play it by ear. The good news is that long-term, he’s going to be OK, again, you start talking about somebody hyperextending their knee or something, you certainly get worried. But he checked out OK.”
Buchholz has been the best and most consistent Sox starter to this point in the season, but Jon Lester (8-3, 3.03) has also been outstanding. He has cemented his status as one of the top left-handers in the game.
Daisuke Matsuzaka (4-2, 4.50), while following a typically puzzling pattern, is holding opponents to just a .230 average, and has been alternately adequate or dominant in six of his last seven starts. Since taking Beckett’s spot in the rotation, Tim Wakefield has offered quality starts in four of his seven outings.
John Lackey (8-3, 4.69) has been winning even while he has yet to perform as the top-of-the-rotation starter that the Sox expected in signing him. He is, however, 4-0 with a 4.15 ERA in his last six starts. If he can improve on that stretch and perform to the standards that he had set in his career with the Angels, it would bolster the Sox’ efforts to withstand the loss of Pedroia.
After all, in the absence of being able to replace Pedroia, the Sox will be left to find ways to get by without him. The task is daunting, though not impossible. The offseason blueprint for the club’s success could go a long way in determining how well the Sox endure the absence of one of their most critical players.
ALEX SPEIER
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