This wasn’t supposed to happen. When the Red Sox added John Lackey to a rotation that already included two of the most dominant starters in the American League in Josh Beckett and Jon Lester, the notion of a turn through the complete turn through a five-man rotation without a win seemed almost preposterous.
Consider: Among active pitchers with at least 50 career decisions, Lester had the highest winning percentage (.702), with Beckett (.609, 18th) and Lackey (.590, 22nd) also near the top of the leaderboard. At the start of the year, manager Terry Francona offered a vision of replicating the sort of dominance that the Braves featured when they had Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz in the same rotation.
Yet little more than two weeks into the season, that vision received an unexpected challenge. On Marathon Monday, Lackey got blasted in a fashion that he’d rarely experienced in his career, as the Sox endured an 8-2 shellacking from the Rays. (Recap.)
Lackey allowed eight runs on nine hits in just 3-1/3 innings. It marked just the sixth time in the right-hander’s career that he had allowed eight or more runs in a game (most recently having done so last June, also against the Rays).
And so, the Sox ended up on the wrong end of a four-game sweep at the hands of the scorching Rays, and saw their losing streak stretch to five games. The streak demonstrated that the wall of Beckett-Lackey-Lester (supported by the scaffolding of Tim Wakefield and Clay Buchholz) is not impervious to a losing streak over a full turn of the rotation.
Over the last five games, the Sox rotation turned in a combined 0-4 record and 6.75 ERA. That -- in concert with the team’s generally atrocious play in recent days -- left the Sox somewhat stunned.
“For sure, we’ve got several guys that can end losing streaks,” Lackey said in acknowledging surprise about the losing streak. “It was an opportunity to do that, and I obviously didn’t get it done.”
As surprising as the Sox’ streak is, it is worth noting that the Braves’ Hall of Fame-laden rotation endured its own growing pains. Maddux joined Glavine and Smoltz for the 1993 season. The Braves actually suffered through a five-game losing streak in the first month that trio spent together, from April 25-29, 1993.
Over the rest of their seven years as healthy co-habitants of the Braves rotation (through the 1999 season), Atlanta suffered just two more losing streaks of at least five games when all three were on turn in the rotation: they lost five straight from May 31-June 4, 1995, and then had a six-game losing streak from Sept. 8-14, 1996.
The Sox still harbor similar hopes and ambitions for their own Big Three. One poor turn -- in which everyone except Beckett got hit hard -- is not enough to shake the team’s faith in three pitchers who have been among the best in the American League for some time.
“I know we have the most confidence in our starting rotation and pitching depth. I don’t think there’s anything to worry about,” said Sox utility man Bill Hall. “Guys have bad starts. Unfortunately for us right now, there was a couple of them in a row. That turns it into a big deal, when there’s a couple of them in a row.
“Hopefully the next time these guys come out, they have the ability to throw shutouts and we’re talking about a different subject. That’s the ability they have. We haven’t lost any confidence in them. I’m sure we’re going to get on track soon.”
In all likelihood, they will. All the same, after 13 games, few probably anticipated that the Sox rotation would own a 3-5 record with the worst ERA (5.18) of any rotation in the American League. With that performance, a group that was expected to help the team endure struggles from either parts of the club has instead contributed to them.
Here are four other things we learned as the Sox bid farewell to a Rays team that dominated them for four days.
REALIGN THIS: THE RAYS ARE COMPETITIVE FOR THE LONG HAUL
At the start of 2009, the Rays were coming off a season in which they had beaten the Red Sox in seven games in the ALCS. At times, particularly through the first 24-1/2 innings of Games 3, 4 and 5 at Fenway, when they outscored the Sox, 29-5, the Rays had looked like a much better team than their Boston counterparts in that ALCS.
The Sox recognized that the Rays should be poised not merely to contend for the 2009 season, but perhaps to improve, thanks to their immensely talented and young nucleus.
That vision didn’t come to pass in 2009, when the Rays got off to a slow start and a number of their players could not sustain their ’08 performances (in part due to injuries to key players like B.J. Upton). But in the four games at Fenway, Tampa Bay looked every bit as dominant as they did in the playoffs.
The Rays outscored the Sox, 24-9, enjoyed a 2.07 ERA (less than half of Boston’s 4.15 mark in the series), committee just one error in the series (compared to five for the Sox) and had a 10-0 advantage in stolen bases. The Rays never trailed in any of the 39 innings of the series. It was a comprehensive butt-kicking.
In part, of course, the one-sided series was a product of the Sox playing about as poorly as could be imagined.
"When you don't show up you are going to get beat," said Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia. "It doesn't matter if it's the Rays or [expletive] Brookline High."
Still, it goes without saying that the Rays are better than Brookline High…and just about every other baseball team around right now.
The Rays are off to the best start in franchise history, having raced out to a 10-3 start that includes a remarkable 7-0 road record. They have taken early possession of first-place in the AL East.
In the process, they have made chatter about realignment concepts that would permit them to “escape” a division that features financial superpowers New York and Boston somewhat absurd -- even to their own manager.
“We don’t jones on that at all. … I love being in this division,” said Rays skipper Joe Maddon. “This is who we are. We understand how to do this, how to remain competitive within this division. We always talk about one eye on the present, one eye on the future. That’s just who we are. I think our farm system is set up pretty well.
“The biggest thing about dollars is that dollars buy experience, and that expedites the potential for winning. I understand that. But we have a bunch of young vets who we’re going to keep for a while and we have to augment properly from within, coupled with some acquisitions.”
Right now, the Rays seem to be doing just that. A nucleus that features young stars whose rights the team controls for years to come. Every member of the rotation that now has a 2.71 ERA (Wade Davis, James Shields, Matt Garza, Jeff Niemann, David Price) is under team control through at least 2013.
THE CENTER OF CONCERN
Red Sox outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury missed his seventh straight game on Monday due to the bruised chest he suffered in a collision with Adrian Beltre on April 11. Ellsbury still wasn’t sure when he might be ready to return to the lineup, and was also unsure whether he’d have to be placed on the disabled list.
“I’d like to make a prediction [about a return date], but it’s kind of hard to tell. I wish it would have been a little bit quicker, but this is one of those things that needs rest,” said Ellsbury. “It’s hard to say [whether a DL trip will be needed]. I’m hoping that I’ll wake up tomorrow and feel a little bit better.”
Red Sox manager Terry Francona said that Ellsbury will have an “aggressive” day on Tuesday to test the progress of his chest. He is still experiencing a sharp pain when he breathes deeply -- something that Ellsbury said was limiting his workouts and any other work -- but the Sox want him to try to swing more aggressively to see whether he is coming closer to a return to the lineup.
Ellsbury said that he has had some improvement. The soreness that he first experienced, which had been located across his ribs, is now isolated at the location of the impact.
“All of that other soreness has pretty much gone away. It’s just right where I took the hit on my chest, that’s where I still feel that sharp pain,” said Ellsbury. “You want to be out there and contribute, but it’s just a rough stretch right now.”
Meanwhile, the health of Mike Cameron remains an ongoing source of concern. He left for Mass. General this morning with a recurrence of the symptoms that led to a kidney stone being removed last Friday. But after doctors ruled out kidney stones, they are still trying to find out what is ailing the Sox’ centerfielder.
“He’s been [at the hospital] all day,” said Francona. “The CT-scan, we think, ruled out more stones. He’s in a tube now, they’ve got multiple doctors trying to figure out what’s going on. We don’t know. He’s been in there all day.”
The Sox held off on putting Ellsbury on the disabled list to this point in part because Cameron returned so quickly to the lineup. Indeed, Francona said during the weekend that the Sox probably would have had to make a move had Cameron not returned to the lineup one day after having the kidney stone removed.
But now, with Ellsbury’s progress unclear and Cameron having endured his setback, the team will have to revisit the question of making a roster move to put one of the players on the disabled list and to summon an outfielder from Triple-A.
“That’s something that [GM Theo Epstein] and I are going to talk about,” said Francona, who met in his office with Epstein and Assistant GM Ben Cherington. “We’ve tried to do what we’ve thought was right the whole way. There’s a lot of uncertainty going on right now. We’ll probably continue to talk tonight. Hopefully we’ll get some more information pretty soon.”
Josh Reddick had appeared to be the most likely candidate for a call-up (indeed, he was in Boston on Friday), though because the Sox designated Ramon A. Ramirez for assignment on Friday, the team does have an opening on the 40-man roster should it choose to add Darnell McDonald.
DOWNRIGHT OFFENSIVE
The Sox’ offensive problems have been so widespread that it would border on unfair to single out individual players. Suffice it to say that the team simply hasn’t had anything resembling the top-to-bottom production to score with any consistency.
In five games starting with their shutout loss to the Twins on Thursday, the Sox are now hitting .196/.261/.341/.602. The Sox went 0-for-5 on Monday with runners in scoring position, extending the team’s streak in such situations to 32 hitless at-bats.
On the season, only the Orioles have been more woeful with runners in scoring position than the Sox, who tote a line of .162/.241/.283/.524 in those opportunities. (The Rays, it should be mentioned, have a team line of .324/.411/.611/1.022 with RISP, best in the majors in all four categories.)
That helps to explain why the Sox have scored two or fewer runs in six of their 13 games this year, and how, among American League teams, only the Orioles (7) have more such futile outputs.
“Everybody wants to know [why the team isn’t scoring]. It’s kind of weird. Nothing is going our way,” said catcher Victor Martinez, who grounded into his major league-leading sixth double play on Monday. “This isn’t going to last 162 games. Nobody wants to go out there and make outs. We’re going out there and battling every at-bat. Like I say, things aren’t going our way right now.”
If there is some consolation for the Sox, it is that there is recent precedent for the team to endure a miserable offensive struggle before a dramatic turnaround. Last August, the Sox lost six straight games in Tampa Bay and New York, scoring just 14 runs in the process. But over the remaining 52 games of the season, the Sox led the majors with 310 runs (6.0 per game).
RED SOX RELIEF COULD HAVE BEEN SPELLED A DIFFERENT WAY THIS OFFSEASON
Rafael Soriano entered the offseason a wanted man.
As the Braves’ closer in 2009, he recorded 27 saves, a 2.97 ERA and a head-spinning 102 strikeouts in 75-2/3 innings. His swing-and-miss stuff appealed to nearly every American League East team, and the Yankees, Red Sox and Orioles all expressed varying degrees of interest.
But then, the Braves -- wanting to claim a couple of draft picks as compensation (including a first-round pick from any team that signed him) for the Type A free agent -- offered him arbitration. And the preliminary conversations that Soriano had been having with other clubs stopped.
“Boston, the Yankees, a lot of team wanted me, but they didn’t want to give up the first-round pick. That’s what my agent told me,” Soriano recalled of the days leading up to the Dec. 7 deadline to accept or decline arbitration. “I was sitting a long time [after the arbitraton offer] and [my agent] said, ‘You’ve got to do something. It’s close to midnight, and we’ve got to find out what you’re going to do.’
“That’s when I accepted arbitration with Atlanta. After that, Atlanta talked to a lot of teams that wanted to trade for me, and Tampa got me.”
So, Soriano improbably went to Tampa Bay in exchange for reliever Jesse Chavez, a team that rarely invests money in relievers. He only landed there because of a series of events that was uncertain: the Braves elected to offer Soriano arbitration, and Soriano elected to accept the offer, thus putting him in a position where the reliever would accept a one-year deal for $7.25 million, rather than pursuing the multi-year deal he’d have been likely to find in free agency.
In the end, despite their interest in the idea of adding a reliever who averaged more than 12 punchouts per nine innings, the Sox didn’t make a major play for Soriano. They felt that their resources during the offseason were better spent elsewhere, chiefly on the likes of Lackey, Cameron, Scutaro and Beltre.
Even so, the fact that the Sox were at least kicking the tires on a deal for the right-hander as a potential complement to Jonathan Papelbon and Daniel Bard is in some ways revealing. As much as bullpen depth seemed a strength for the 2009 Sox, the team made the move to acquire Billy Wagner at the end of August and kicked the tires on Soriano because of concerns that the team’s middle relief could prove a shortcoming.
This year, that notion has been borne out. The Sox continue to search for consistency behind Bard and Papelbon. The Rays, meanwhile, have a pitcher whom they hope will be dominant for the ninth inning.
ALEX SPEIER
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