It is Game 3 of the season, a time when teams that are making a first spin through the rotation typically expect a downgrade from “front of the rotation” starter to “mid-rotation guy.” There is supposed to be an appreciable decline in quality. The pitcher on the mound is not supposed to be someone like John Lackey.
Lackey will make his Red Sox debut after agreeing to a surprising five-year, $82.5 million deal in the offseason. He carries a pedigree that suggests anything but a No. 3 starter.
Since his first full season in 2003, he ranks fourth in the American League with a 3.83 ERA, fourth in the AL in wins (93), and is fourth in strikeouts per nine innings (7.32). He has posted sub-4.00 marks in each of the last five years, joining Roy Halladay as the only AL pitcher to accomplish that feat.
In short, he has been among the best and most consistent handful of performers in the American League for the last eight seasons. And now, he is in a position to have his Red Sox unveiling only after teammates Josh Beckett and Jon Lester have already taken the bump.
"The more good pitching you send out there, the better off you are going to be,” said Sox manager Terry Francona. “I remember when I was younger, I would pick up the papers and see the pitching line every day. The Braves would have [Greg] Maddux, [John] Smoltz and [Tom] Glavine. Looks good. There's a reason -- because they were really good. They consistently threw good pitching out there every day. Hopefully that's what we can do."
The Red Sox, in fact, have set out to assemble something that has been all but impossible to achieve in the American League East. With the addition of Lackey, the team had visions for a front three that is capable of delivering the kind of consistent dominance that has proven elusive in the most relentless offensive division in the game.
The challenge of doing so is quite formidable. Sox GM Theo Epstein alluded to that fact in announcing the contract extension for Beckett, which will likely keep him teamed with Lackey and Lester through the 2014 season.
“It’s hard to have an elite organization without excellent starting pitching. I think we have an even higher standard here,” said Epstein. “We need starting pitching that can succeed in the American League East against these tough lineups that we face night in, night out. … That’s the biggest building block on which we can go about finishing off the rest of the club.”
Since 2000, there have been 33 rotations in the majors that featured three starters with sub-4.00 ERAs and at least 162 innings. Just two of those have come from the AL East, and no team has done it in the division since the 2002 Sox who featured Pedro Martinez and Derek Lowe as well as Tim Wakefield.
Over that same 10-year span, there have been 24 rotations that produced three pitchers who threw at least 200 innings. Again, just two of those teams have been from the AL East, with the last such rotation having been the 2003 Yankees, who featured four such starters (Roger Clemens, David Wells, Andy Pettitte, Mike Mussina).
Unsurprisingly, teams that can feature three pitchers who are that good tend to excel. The 24 teams with three pitchers of 200+ innings averaged 92 wins; 16 of the 24 reached the playoffs. The 33 teams in the last decade with three starters with sub-4.00 ERAs have averaged 91 wins. Again, two-thirds of them made the playoffs.
And the 11 teams that have had three or more starters with BOTH 200+ innings and a sub-4.00 ERA have averaged 96 wins, with nine (82 percent) making the playoffs. There would appear to be tremendous value in having three outstanding starters to anchor a team, something that helps significantly with the construction of the rest of the team.
“It’s important to have a strong bullpen, but what compliments a strong bullpen is a strong rotation so you’re not overtaxing the bullpen. Every time they come to the mound they’re fresh, and in the event of a couple relievers pitching well at a time, you’re never in a position where you’re riding the hot hand so much,” said Sox pitching coach John Farrell. “The true value in a stating pitcher begins with innings. We always budget every year for 1,600 plus innings, and recognize that is above and beyond the regular season amount.
“But there are not many times you have five starters go from start to finish and not miss a start. So the fact that you can hopefully count on three guys and 600 innings, that’s a huge chunk and a foundation to build from.”
Lester is coming off of two straight seasons of having been such a horse. Beckett has delivered over 200 innings in three of his four seasons with the Sox, with sub-4.00 ERAs in two of those.Though Lackey has started the last two seasons on the DL, resulting in reduced innings loads in 2008 and 2009, he has averaged 199 innings a year since 2003. The Sox believe that he is healthy and strong enough to return to the 200-inning plateau this coming season.
That is in part the product of how Lackey approaches his craft. He went from being a prototypical power pitcher who would seemingly try to fire the ball past opponents to one whose groundball rate spiked in the last few years. That, in turn, has made him a model of pitch efficiency that has allowed him to average nearly seven innings a start over the last three years.
“He would pitch consistently 93-94 with a four-seamer and a curveball, and really attack with two pitches,” said Farrell. “Granted, he had, and still does, have the ability to throw his fastball both sides of the plate. But as innings pile up, and as consecutive years begin to build a track record, you’re going to have to deal with how your body feels and adapt to that.
“And that’s where a two-seamer and inducing contact early in the count -- because you look at his pitches per game over the last five/six years, it’s remarkably close, like 106-109, and he’s going into the 7th 8th inning many, many times. So, he’s understood the value of innings, and sticking around late in the game to get decisions.”
Ordinarily, a pitcher capable of such contributions would be the subject of constant fascination from the day of his arrival to a new team. But Lackey, somewhat remarkably, has enjoyed a business-as-usual start to his Boston career.
This spring, he was rarely interrupted in his routine. He did not encounter nearly the fanfare in spring training of past top-of-the-rotation acquisitions such as Curt Schilling, Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka or even Matt Clement.
The 31-year-old, in an interview on the Big Show on Monday, described spring training as having been “pretty relaxing. . . . I just kind of blended in and kind of handled my own business, because it’s such a veteran, professional staff.”
He remained relatively under the radar, something that is still the case as he prepares for his first start with his new club. As he was informed in his Big Show interview, in a recent poll asking who the Sox’ ace was, Lackey received just 5 percent of the vote. The right-hander seemed amused by that fact.
“I guarantee I have more than 5 percent at the end of this year,” said Lackey. “I hope all three of us have great years and it’s 33 percent at the end of the year.”
If that proves true, then the Red Sox’ pitching blueprint stands a very good chance of achieving its intended success.
ALEX SPEIER
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