On Friday, Red Sox CEO Larry Lucchino sounded a note of some defiance about his team’s commitment to the 2010 season. He insisted the Sox' financial investment in winning would remain undiminished in the coming season.

“Our payroll has not gone down the last two years. The newspapers may report that our payroll has gone down the last two years, but that is just not accurate. And our payroll will be higher this year,” Lucchino said on the Dennis & Callahan show.
 
“We don’t discuss publicly what our payroll is, because we think there’s a competitive disadvantage in telling the other teams in our division and our league what we’re going to spend and not spend because they may be able to do some guesses and calculations about how active we’ll be in the market. We’re always pleased when other teams announce that they’re payroll will be X or Y, and we just sit quietly and don’t say anything. But it is inaccurate to say our payroll has gone down, and our payroll will go up this year.”
 
Now, the significance of his claim is becoming more apparent. Barring an unexpected move to clear payroll, the 2010 Red Sox will be the most expensive non-Yankees team of all time.
 
The signings of John Lackey to a five-year deal in the $82.5 million range and Mike Cameron to a two-year, $15.5 million contract would push the Sox payroll — as calculated for Major League Baseball’s luxury tax purposes — to an all-time franchise high.
 
Based on salary projections for the players who were offered contracts last Saturday, the Sox are already nearing the $170 million threshold for 2010 at which clubs will be assessed a luxury tax penalty.
 
Of course, that should come as little surprise given the statement of Sox general manager Theo Epstein at this year’s GM Meetings in Chicago in November:
 
“There’s some things we want to do this winter,” Epstein said, “and we don’t have a ton of room under the [competitive balance tax].”
 
Also known as the luxury tax, it's meant by Major League Baseball as a deterrent to spending. The collective bargaining agreement between the Players Association and MLB owners defines a payroll level beyond which teams will be taxed for their spending.
 
In 2010, the CBT threshold increases from $162 million to $170 million. As a result of that substantial number, many anticipated the Sox might go berserk in dispensing cash this offseason.
 
This perception was based in part on a misunderstanding: the Sox have been portrayed as having carried a $122 million payroll in 2009, and so the idea that the team would near the CBT threshold seemed outlandish. But that $122 million figure had nothing to do with the Sox’ payroll as calculated for CBT purposes.

Instead, it represented the combined Opening Day base salaries of the 25-man roster (and players on the disabled list). It failed to reflect millions in incentives that would be earned by the likes of John Smoltz and Takashi Saito, or millions more spent on midseason acquisitions such as Victor Martinez, Alex Gonzalez and Billy Wagner. Nor did that figure account for the roughly $10 million that teams must spend every year on benefits.

So, the 2009 Red Sox payroll was far greater than the $122 million figure. For CBT purposes, the Sox, according to one major league source, had a payroll in excess of $150 million.

Now, the Sox have already been big players in the offseason market. But their one major move for Lackey and two complementary moves for Marco Scutaro and Cameron have already pushed the Sox near the CBT threshold that Epstein suggested the Sox were approaching with caution.

Right now, the Red Sox CBT payroll for next season — based on informal projections of salaries for players on the 40-man roster whose salaries are not yet set — seems likely to check in around $165 million to $170 million.

That would already mean that next year’s Red Sox will represent the most expensive assemblage of talent by a non-Yankees team in big league history. The previous mark was owned by the Sox’ World Series winning team of 2007, which had a $163.1 million payroll (as calculated for CBT purposes). That season, the team was hit with a luxury tax of roughly $6 million for clearing that year’s $148 million CBT threshold.
 
Now, with the big-ticket free agent signings of Lackey and Cameron, the Sox are at or near the point at which they’ll start to be penalized for any further spending on players. That prospect, in turn, has implications for anything else the Sox might do this offseason.
 
The Sox, after not having paid the luxury tax the last two years, would be subject to a 22.5 percent penalty for payroll over $170 million in 2010. As such, the cost of any further acquisitions would become steeper. Were the Sox to sign a player such as Adrian Beltre for $10 million to $12 million a year, they’d have to pay more than $2 million extra in luxury tax.
 
That is not a guarantee that the Sox are done with their moves this offseason. But, the tax that will be assessed on any additional signings this offseason will at least give the Sox pause before making more moves.
 
If nothing else, the current franchise-record commitments give a sense of why the Sox might bristle at suggestions that they have scaled back. To the contrary, the team appears to be spending like never before.